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  • Title: Time-dependence of survival predictions based on markers of HIV disease. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.
    Author: Perneger TV, Abrahamowicz M, Bartlett G, Yerly S.
    Journal: J Investig Med; 2000 May; 48(3):207-12. PubMed ID: 10822902.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the ability of baseline clinical stage, viremia, and CD4 cell counts to predict mortality in HIV-1-infected patients changes with duration of follow-up. METHODS: Three hundred ninety-four patients were followed for an average of 29 months by the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, a practice-based registry of HIV-1-infected patients in Switzerland. Predictor variables were the baseline clinical stage, CD4 cell count, circulating HIV-1 RNA level, and the RNA/CD4 ratio; the outcome was death. The changes in relative risks of death over time were examined using survival models that extend the Cox model to allow for nonproportionality of hazards. RESULTS: During 949 person-years of follow-up, 169 patients died (mortality rate 17.8 per 100 person-years). Compared with clinical stage A, patients in stages B and C at baseline had much higher mortality rates in the subsequent year. The prognostic ability of stage C decayed over time (P = 0.03). By contrast, the relative risks associated with a 2-fold difference in CD4 counts remained remarkably stable, at approximately 0.6 (P = 0.81 for the time-dependence test). Relative hazards associated with a 10-fold difference in HIV RNA per milliliter and in HIV RNA per CD4 cell both tended to increase over time, but this trend failed to reach statistical significance (P = 0.21 and P = 0.08, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Time-dependence patterns of prognostic ability varied widely among predictors, displaying gradual decay (clinical stage), stability (CD4 cells), and a trend to progressive increase (viremia). These results may affect clinical monitoring of HIV-infected patients and the interpretation of cohort studies of HIV-infected patients.
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