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  • Title: Caries prediction by multiple salivary mutans streptococcal counts in caries-free children with different levels of fluoride exposure, oral hygiene and sucrose intake.
    Author: Petti S, Hausen HW.
    Journal: Caries Res; 2000; 34(5):380-7. PubMed ID: 11014904.
    Abstract:
    The aims of this study were to assess whether multiple salivary mutans streptococcal (ms) counts have a higher predictive power than a single one, and whether the predictive power of the test is different at different levels of fluoride exposure, oral hygiene and sucrose consumption. Three salivary ms tests were performed at 3-month intervals (positive test: salivary ms >/=5x10(5) cfu/ml) on a sample of 304, initially caries-free, 6- to 7-year-olds. Plaque index was also assessed and the parents filled out a questionnaire concerning sucrose-containing eating events and fluoride exposure. Sensitivity, specificity and Youden's index (J) were used to compare the predictive power. Thirty-six percent of the children developed caries during the 2-year follow-up. The highest J value for a single ms test (the second) was 0.24 (sensitivity 29.1%, specificity 95.4%). The multiple ms test with the highest J value (0.29) was obtained by the dichotomies 0 vs. 1-3 positive tests (sensitivity 50.0%, specificity 79.9%) and 0-1 vs. 2-3 positive tests (sensitivity 31.8%, specificity 97.4%). The predictive power of the multiple test was passable for children with low fluoride exposure and high plaque index (sensitivity 57.4%, specificity 93.7%, J 0.51), while it was low for the other groups. Sucrose exposure did not significantly affect the predictive power of the ms test.sion.
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