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  • Title: Measuring fertility differentials from census information alone.
    Author: Desplanques G.
    Journal: Popul; 1994; 6():23-33. PubMed ID: 12157925.
    Abstract:
    Fertility measurement based on census information alone is applied to data for France during 1987-89. The author states that the classic method, which is based on registration data, is biased due to deficiencies in census or registration data or interaction with migration. The own-children method used in this study's calculations is applied to data at the regional level (region of residence). Further refinements could have been made in other ways. The analysis could have also applied only to first births. Census data are used to capture population structure at a given point in time, the distribution of children by mother's age at the time of birth, and the female age structure. Age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) and total fertility rates (TFR) can be derived from the own-children method (OCM). OCM is viewed as useful for understanding within-country differences. TFR is calculated to be 1.71 by the OCM during 1987-89 and 1.80 by the classic method (a 5% difference). The underestimation is attributed to infant mortality (1%), to the proportion of children not living with their mother (2.5%), and to the omission of very young children (1.5%). ASFR are 3/1000 at the age of 17 years, which is half the rate derived from the classic method using registration data. Underestimation declines to under 10% by the age of 22 years. At older ages there is overestimation resulting from the OCM. Estimation errors creep into registration-derived figures due to the lack of fulfillment for requirements for comparable census and registration nationality data, the same level of coverage for national and non-national populations, and residence within France of all births. OCM avoids the aforementioned estimation errors only if the fertility of women not enumerated is substantially different from women included. OCM would include children not living in France, while the classic method does not. OCM pertains to the years 1987-89, and the classic method pertains to 1989-90. OCM would over- or underestimate depending upon ethnic nationality. Fertility rates of nationalities are found to vary with their affiliation to France, either as French nationals or foreign nationals. Deviations between the two methods at the regional level range 0-10%.
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