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  • Title: [The future population of Mexico. 123 million by the year 2010].
    Author: Madrigal Hinojosa R.
    Journal: Demos; 1988; ():18-9. PubMed ID: 12158023.
    Abstract:
    Recent data on fertility in Mexico have allowed identification of the most likely of 2 alternative population projections through the year 2010. The projection assumes an increase in life expectancy for men and women respectively from 64.08 and 70.47 in 1980-85 and 77.00 in 2005-10. The migration assumption is that there will be a net loss of 529,274 Mexicans every 5 years. The total fertility rate is expected to decline from to 2.7. The total population was projected at 82.8 million in 1988, 104.0 million at the end of the century, and 123.2 million in 2010. The 0-14 age group will decline from 44.23% of the population in 1980 and 40.33% in 1985 to 31.41% in 2000 and 29.50% in 2010. The proportion aged 15-64 will increase from 52.45% in 1980 and 56.22% in 1985 to 63.96% in 2000 and 64 75% in 2010. The proportion of the population in localities with under 2500 inhabitants is expected to remain stable at about 24.3 million persons. Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Puebla will have a combined population of 35 million by the year 2000. In 2010, the Federal District and the State of Mexico which includes Mexico City are expected to contain 29.3% of the total population. The projected population increase over the next 22 years is 40.4 million, 16% greater than the national population in 1960. The implications for providing food and consumer goods, and especially for improving the quality of life are serious. The relative demand for primary and secondary education and for maternal-child health care will decline, but the demand for jobs and for family planning services will increase as the proportion of the population in the economically active age groups increases.
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