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  • Title: [Demography of Mexico City. The same problems with less population].
    Author: Camposortega Cruz S.
    Journal: Demos; 1991; (4):23-4. PubMed ID: 12158039.
    Abstract:
    The Mexico City metropolitan area currently extends over 4451.2 sq km, completely covering the Federal District and 27 municipios in the state of Mexico. The current population of the Mexico City metropolitan area is estimated at about 16.1 million and its growth rate at approximately 2%/year. The crude birth rate is 24/1000 and the crude death rate 6/1000. The metropolitan Mexico City population represents 18.6% of the total Mexican population. Mexico's other large cities fall far behind in total population, Guadalajara with 3.16 million, Monterrey with 2.77 million, and Puebla with 1.5 million. Mexico City is 1 of the 5 largest cities of the world. Estimates of the current Mexico City population differ substantially from projections completed in the 1980s, which calculated populations of 19-22 million. The explanation of the difference lies primarily in overestimation of the metropolitan population in the 1980 census, the basis for the projections. Preliminary data from the 1990 census, data from the 1987 National Fertility and Health Survey, vital statistics, and some data on internal migration allow a preliminary correction of calculations relating to Mexico's population dynamics. During the 20th century, Mexico City's population has grown from 345,000 in 1900 to 1,029,000 in 1930, 3,136,000 in 1950, 9,045,000 in 1970, and 15,785,000 in 1990. The most rapid growth occurred in 1930-70, when the population grew by more than 5% annually. The growth rate declined to 3.65% between 1970-80 and according to preliminary estimated to 1.92% in 1980-90. Factors explaining the declining growth rate may include the fertility decline in Mexico City, reorientation of migration away from Mexico City and toward inntermediate cities with under 1 million inhabitants, and departures from Mexico City caused by the 1985 earthquakes, private and public decentralization policies, pollution, and other factos which have reduced the attractiveness of the capital. The reevised calculations suggest that Mexico City's population will not reach 20 million until early in the 21st century. Although demographic pressure on Mexico City is thus reduced, it is by no means eliminated, given that current needs are only partially being met. It is estimated for example that Mexico City requires 6.3 million jobs, but only 6.1 million are available, of which 1.1 million pay less than the minimum wage.
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