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  • Title: [The population of Latin America: population dynamics from 1990 to 2050].
    Author: Chackiel J.
    Journal: Demos; 1992; (5):6-7. PubMed ID: 12158077.
    Abstract:
    Past population projections have proven deficient in predicting demographic changes and their intensity. Projections did not envision a decline of nearly 40% in Latin American fertility in two decades. The projections in this work are cautious and based primarily on past trends and the expected continuation of a process leading eventually to replacement level fertility. The economic crisis of the 1980s has generated pessimism regarding the continuation of fertility declines based on economic progress. For the projection, the Latin American countries were classified into four stages of demographic transition. Most Latin American countries, including the three most populated, were considered to be in the third stage, characterized by fertility and mortality in full transition. A table of demographic indicators contains projections for the years 2010, 2025, and 2050 for all of Latin America and for Bolivia, Guatemala, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, which are considered to represent the four stages of transition. Latin America as a whole in 1990 had a population of 430,182,000, with a total fertility rate of 3.1, life expectancy at birth of 69 years, and natural increase rate of 2.1%. 36% of the population was under 15 years old. In 2010, 2025, and 2050, respectively, the population is projected to increase to 587 million, 686 million, and 785 million; the total fertility rate to decline to 2.3, 2.1, and 2.1; life expectancy at birth to increase to 72 years, 74 years, and 74 years, and the natural increase rate to decline to 1.2, 0.8, and 0.3%. The proportion of the population under 15 will decline to 28% in 2010, 24% in 2025, and 21% in 2050.
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