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  • Title: The effect of changing sexual, marital and contraceptive behaviour on conceptions, abortions, and births.
    Author: Dalla Zuanna G, Gavini S, Spinelli A.
    Journal: Eur J Popul; 1998 Mar; 14(1):61-88. PubMed ID: 12158981.
    Abstract:
    This study proposed a model for estimating conceptions and tested the model in the Puglia region of Italy. Data were obtained from a 1989 KAP Survey among 2014 sexually active women aged 15-24 years, 25-34 years, and 35-44 years. Data for 1979 and 1994 were distributed based on the census. The model differentiated women by marital status, contraceptive use, pregnancy state, and pregnancy outcomes and wantedness. The analysis revealed differences in intensity and tempo of fertility by age. Less educated women had children at younger ages. The number of unwanted births, conceptions, and abortions was influenced by the spread of safe contraception, sex behavior of the unmarried, and the propensity to marry and have babies. Simulations revealed that increased birth control resulted in fewer abortions and influenced unwanted conceptions and births. Fertility declined in the 1980s-90s, due to later age at marriage, wanted fertility, and nonacceptors. Contraceptors increased, as did the failure rate, which led to more abortions. Simulations for 1979 and 1994 revealed changes among singles in sex and contraceptive behavior. More conceptions among singles in the 1980s were due to earlier sexual relations. Fewer conceptions in the 1990s were due to improvement in contraceptive failure. Wanted conceptions among married women declined faster than unwanted ones. Fewer unwanted conceptions were attributed to more married acceptors and safer method use. Fewer wanted conceptions were attributed to married nonacceptors and pregnancy. Couples in the 1990s who conceived due to contraceptive failure were less inclined to abort.
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