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  • Title: Determinants of the Egyptian labour migration.
    Author: Kandil M, Metwally M.
    Journal: Int Migr; 1992 Mar; 30(1):39-56. PubMed ID: 12159614.
    Abstract:
    The objective is to summarize the pattern of Egyptian migration to Arab oil-producing countries (AOPC), to review some factors that are important determinants of labor movement based on theory, and to empirically model the migration rate to AOPC and to Saudi Arabia. Factors are differentiated as to their relative importance. Push factors are the low wages, high inflation rate, and high population density in Egypt; pull factors are higher wages. It is predicted that an increase in income from destination countries has a significant positive impact on the migration rate. An increase in population density stimulates migration. An increase in inflation acts to increase out-migration with a 2-year lag, which accommodates departure preparation. Egypt's experience with labor migration is described for the pre-oil boom, and the post-oil boom. Several estimates of labor migration are given. Government policy toward migration is positive. Theory postulates migration to be determined by differences in the availability of labor, labor rewards between destination and origin, and the cost of migration. In the empirical model, push factors are population density, the current inflation rate, and the ratio of income/capita in AOPC to Egypt. The results indicate that the ratio of income/capita had a strong pull impact and population density had a strong push impact. The inflation rate has a positive impact with a lag estimated at 2 years. Prior to the Camp David Accord, there was a significant decrease in the number of Egyptian migrants due to political tension. The findings support the classical theory of factor mobility. The consequences of migration on the Egyptian economy have been adverse. Future models should disaggregate data because chronic shortages exist in some parts of the labor market. Manpower needs assessment would be helpful for policy makers.
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