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  • Title: Urban and rural population projections for the Syrian Arab Republic.
    Author: Al-alwani M.
    Journal: Popul Bull U N Econ Comm West Asia; 1980 Jun; 18():91-101. PubMed ID: 12263347.
    Abstract:
    Population projections have been made for the Syrian Arab Republic based on data from 1960 and 1970 censuses and based on the 1970 census in conjunction with continuous demographic sampling indicators for 1976. Estimates for urban-rural population distribution based on projections of the demographic variables in each case are preferable, yet estimating urban-rural distribution from population estimates based on indicators for the country as a whole seems reasonable. Since estimates by both sex and age up to the year 2000 are available, it appears reasonable to complete these by deriving from them an estimate of rural-urban distribution in order that certain urgent and unanticipated needs might be met. The estimated percentages are multiplied by the male and female totals, then by the age groups distributed according to sex for the years covered by the estimate up to the target year. In this way the total urban population is obtained along with its distribution by age and sex. The number of urban-dwellers is subtracted from the total population and from the total of the age and sex groups, giving the rural population figure for the years covered by the estimate. The census year 1970 in the Syrian Arab Republic was taken as the base year for this estimate. The urban-rural estimate was derived from the population estimate. Although this estimate has not been published as yet, the assumptions on which it can be based are summarized. Estimates of the percentage of urban populations by sex and year for the years 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000 are presented in table form. The percentage of males in the urban population was estimated to be 46.2% in 1975, 48.1% in 1980, 49.9% in 1985, 51.7% in 1990, 53.5% in 1995, and 55.3% in 2000. For females these percentages were 45.8, 47.5, 49.3, 51.1, 52.9, and 54.7, respectively. The estimates of the Regional Office of UNESCO in Beirut (1974) are higher because the rapid urban development witnessed by the country over the 1960-1970 decade was used as a linear function up to the year 2000. Estimates of the Population Division of the United Nations are of limited usefulness because they only go up to 1985. Estimates of the urban and rural population by sex, age group and year are shown in table form for the 1975-2000 period. For 1975 the male urban population was estimated at 1,754,676 and the female urban population was estimated at 1,663,480. For the year 2000, these figures were 4,786,768 for males and 4,610,663 for females. For 1975 the male rural population was estimated at 2,043,324; the female rural population was 1,976,520. These estimates were 3,869,232 for males and 3,818,337 females in the year 2000.
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