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  • Title: An economic-demographic model of the United States labor market.
    Author: Anderson JM.
    Journal: Res Popul Econ; 1982; 4():117-53. PubMed ID: 12264899.
    Abstract:
    An econometric model that has been developed to investigate the effects of demographic change on the US economy is described. The specific demographic features examined are the sizes of age sex groups in the US working age population. The size of these groups from now through the end of the 20th century will be determined primarily by past and current levels of fertility so they can be forecast with some degree of confidence. The model expands both the domain and accuracy of longterm economic forecasting by making use of the considerable quantity of demographic information that can be forecast, at least through this century, with a fairly great degree of confidence. In addition to economic forecasting, this study of the impact of demographic changes on the US labor market contributes to the investigation of the interrelationships among economic and demographic changes. The task of the model is as follows: given an exogenous projection of fertility and mortality rates and net immigration and given exogenous forecasts of variables such as rates of technical change, government demand for goods and services, and tax rates, the model forecasts variables characterizing the labor market and the macroeconomy. The model uses the fundamental principles of supply and demand, the economic theory of production, and the theory of household allocation of time and income to draw the implications of changes in demographic variables for the labor market and the economy. The crux of the model is a set of relationships depicting the behavior of the US labor market. In the labor market submodel, the input of labor of each of 16 age sex groups and its piece in each period is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. The 16 demographic groups are males and females, respectively, of ages 14-15, 16-17, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65 and over. Equations depicting the supply of and demand for labor of various demographic groups are estimated and provide the behavioral relationships of the labor market submodel. The following description of the model is in 3 parts: the demand for labor; the labor supply equations; and the intergration of the 2 and the complete growth model. Some illustrative forecasts are included. In all 3 forecasts, the proportion of the labor force accounted for by workers in the middle age groups, 25-54, increases, reaching the highest levels in the post World War 2 period in the 1990-2000 decade. The proportion accounted for by males in that age group does not rise notably and remains lower than it was in the 1950s and 1960s. The proportion accounted for by women age 25-54 rises markedly. This trend is possible the most salient feature of the forecasts.
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