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  • Title: Alternative demographic futures and the composition of the demand for labor, by industry and by occupation.
    Author: Serow WJ.
    Journal: Res Popul Econ; 1981; 3():209-23. PubMed ID: 12265061.
    Abstract:
    An effort is made in this discussion to demonstrate the effects of varying rates of population growth upon the industrial and occupational compositions of demand for labor. The discussion extends previous research activity that has demonstrated that changes in the composition of consumer demand are insensitive to alternative rates of population growth. The discussion begins with a replication of projections of consumer demand patterns under 3 alternative population projections and then transforms these results into projections of final demand by industrial sector, demand for labor by industrial sector, and demand for labor by occupational group. Projections of US household composition patterns are made for the 1980-2020 period. The size and composition of the population and households are derived from US Bureau of the Census Series 1, 2, and 3 projections. From these, projections of size and composition of the labor force are derived utilizing Bureau of Labor Statistics' to 1990. Projections of average earnings per worker, in the aggregate, are taken from Bureau of Economic Analysis projections. The results show that both labor force compositions are relatively insensitive to varying demographic patterns. The industrial composition reflects a continuation of already existing trends, but the occupational composition shows some tendency to move away from professional and highly skilled blue collar occupations and towards service and clerical occupations. The results contain a variety of implications for policy considerations concerning higher education and the proper functioning of the labor market. The relative decline in the number of professional and managerial workers, the groups who are most likely to possess a university degree, suggests that the prospects for conventional higher education might be even less bright than would be suggested by an inspection of trends in the size of the 18-24 year old population. Some mitigation of this possibly adverse trend is possible if the system of higher education proves sufficiently flexible to provide more occupational and retraining services than is currently the case. The findings also suggest the need for greater attention to be directed to the design of training programs intended to meet the need for specific occupations. Another problem is the adequacy of labor supply. A possible response to the potential supply-demand imbalances is a reconsideration of current immigration policies in order to allow larger numbers of migrants to enter the labor force.
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