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  • Title: [Human resources planning: the use of demographic-economic models].
    Author: Daubon RE.
    Journal: Rev Centroam Econ; 1980; 1(2-3):267-313. PubMed ID: 12265325.
    Abstract:
    This article provides an overview of the evolution of employment at different stages of economic development and describes the employment situation in developing countries, suggesting future trends and means of improvement. The lack of authentic development is reflected in the problem of employment of both natural and human resources in Third World countries. Their occupational structures may be examined in 2 periods, 1 in which a certain pretransitional equilibrium was still observed, and the other following the beginning of industrialization. With increased population growth and the application of development strategies favoring urban areas and manufacturing, a series of imbalances were introduced which had as 1 consequence an ever widening income gap between rural areas, cities, and developed countries. Rural stagnation and population pressure ultimately led to massive urban migration in many areas, swelling the cities and creating an "informal sector" of underemployed persons in marginal activities of low productivity. By 2050, the world labor force will have increased from its present 1.7 billion workers to 3.8 billion, of which only 660 million will be in presently developed countries. Each country must plan the best use of its human resources, and must include employment planning in overall development planning. The development of economic-demographic models, adapted to the context of each country, can be a valuable tool in planning. Various types of economic-demographic models and their uses are described and differentiated. Economic-demographic models of employment have 3 main parts, demography, economy, and training. Their use in the analysis of the impact of specific variables on employment, of policies, and of general strategies is described. Finally, the characteristics and uses of MODEMP, an economic-demographic model created for analysis of labor force and employment problems in Peru, are described.
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