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  • Title: A pattern of age-specific fertility and its use in estimating the total fertility rate.
    Author: De Simoni A.
    Journal: Genus; 1982 Dec; 38(3-4):51-71. PubMed ID: 12266012.
    Abstract:
    This paper is divided into 2 distinct parts. In the 1st, a method to construct a pattern of age-specific fertility is illustrated, which individuates model schedules corresponding to different levels of total fertility. The particular pattern proposed is based on a mathematical law--essentially consisting of 7 logistic functions--which relates the % age-specific schedules to the value of the total fertility rate. An application of this model is described in order to construct such a pattern, using age-specific fertility rates observed in the Italian regions in the years from 1965 to 1979. In the 2nd part, a particular use of the above pattern is proposed, concerning a method to estimate the age-specific rates and the index synthetizing them. This method needs known data regarding the annual number of births and the numbers of women in the childbearing age groups. It can be seen, in fact, that the whole of the above data individuates in the pattern a well-defined fertility schedule, exactly representing the estimated figures. As the calculation of these figures is formally connected with the solution of a system of equations, it is shown--also through a numerical example--how that solution can be easily obtained by an iterative procedure. Finally, the actual pattern built in the 1st part of this paper is employed to carry out some applications--on the national as well as on the regional level--of the proposed method of estimation. (author's modified)
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