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  • Title: How India's fertility rates have fallen.
    Journal: Popul Today; 1984 Apr; 12(4):5. PubMed ID: 12266070.
    Abstract:
    Recent analyses of India's fertility trends, a country with a population estimated at 750 million as of mid 1983, report a significant decline in the crude birthrate (CBR) and total fertility rate (TFR) in the 1960s and particularly in the 1970s. For the 1961-71 period, a CBR of 41-42/1000 population and a TFR slightly below 6 children/woman have been estimated. The indications are that there was a percentage reduction in total fertility of about 12% in the 1960s and of 14-16% in the 1970s. For 1972 a CBR of about 38 and a TFR of about 5.75 have been estimated. By 1981 the CBR has been estimated to have dropped to about 33-34/1000 and the TFR to about 4.8. Since 1976 the decline in the birthrate has stalled, a major factor being the increasing number of women in the childbearing age groups. There is considerable variation in birthrate trends and fertility levels among India's 31 states. Analysts agree that the national family planning program appears to have had the single most important impact on changes in total fertility. The last complete program year, 1982-83, showed significant increases in the number of acceptors. Provisional figures indicate a 1% increase from the year before in the number of sterilizations, to about 4 million. This is the highest annual number ever reached, except for the special drive of 1976-77. For the 1st time IUD acceptors topped the 1 million mark, an increase of 43% and 71% of the target. The number of conventional contraceptive acceptors reached 5.7 million. The number of oral contraceptive (OC) acceptors showed a significant (43%) increase but the number (170,000) is still very small. The percentage of eligible couples currently protected by modern contraceptive methods provided by the program was 28% in 1982-83. All India figures conceal wide variations in state levels of achievement. The percentage of couples protected in the 16 major stages ranged from 11% in Jammu and Kashmir to 37% in Maharashtra in 1981-82. India's overall performance figures are not as dismal as sometimes portrayed, but the population increase of 16 million every year leaves no room for complacency. India can most likely expect a relatively constant growth rate for the near future as mortality declines keep pace with fertility decrease.
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