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  • Title: [The estimation of fertility by age and, in particular, of the conjunctural index of fertility].
    Author: Calot G.
    Journal: Genus; 1983; 39(1-4):85-114. PubMed ID: 12266125.
    Abstract:
    A method proposed by Enzo Lombardo to estimate the total period fertility rate of a given year n required data on the total number of live births for the year n, the female population at risk by single year of age, and the set of age-specific fertility rates for a year prior to year n. The method yields an estimate of the sum of age-specific fertility rates over any age group. A method to estimate the total period fertility rate of year n proposed by Gerard Calot requires the same information, except that the most recent available data can refer to a year previous to year n or to year n. The article compares the Lombardo and Calot methods using age-specific data for fertility in France from 1946-1981. It is concluded that on the whole the Calot method is superior. The estimates can be improved by linear extrapolation thanks to an adjustment on the 3 last years for which rates by age are available. The estimation of total period fertility rates was very accurate by both methods. The error of estimation was limited on the average to 4-4.5% of the chronological variation between the last year for which rates by age were available and the year for which estimates were made. The estimates of rates for age or for age groups were mediocre; with Calot's method, they always averaged at least 30% of the average chronological variation. The use of Calot's method, based on the availability of population at risk for year b prior to n, should be restricted to the estimation of total period fertility rates for very large groups. At other ages, fertility may vary through time very differently from the variations of the total fertility rate.
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