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  • Title: Duration-specific marital fertility in Egypt.
    Author: Coale AJ, El-atoum S.
    Journal: Popul Bull ECWA; 1982; (22-23):5-30. PubMed ID: 12266317.
    Abstract:
    Because of the discovery of substantial underreporting of births, deaths, marriages, and divorces in Egypt, the original report of the Committee on Population and Demography on duration-secific fertility rates of married women in Egypt was modified by using estimated calculations of these vital statistics. The original report involved the calculation of duration-specific fertility rates of married women in Egypt by first estimating the number of currently married women at each duration (by single years of duration under duration 5, and by 5-year intervals of duration up to duration 20). The calculation required data on the annual number of marriages and on the number of divorces each year, classified by duration of marriage, and estimated of the number of deaths of married persons of each sex by duration of marriage. From these data, it is possible to estimate at each date the number of marriages still intact of those that took place 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, 5-10, 10-15, and 15-20 years earlier. Deficits in the recorded number of marriages cause implausible variations in duration-specific fertility. It is important to discover the extent to which the recent apparent increase in birthrate is genuine, and the extent to which it is the result of improved registration. Factors causing an increase in fertility could be increase in the fraction of the population of childbearing age that is currently married; reduction in the interbirth intervals in the early years of marriage as a result of shorter average period of breastfeeding; or reduction in the practice of contraception or in the effectiveness of such practice. Duration-specific fertility rates were recalculated for 1966-79 by estimating the number of currently married women at each duration of marriage. If registered data are accurate, there was a slight increase in marital fertility after 1975 or 1976, and a large increase in 1979. The sharp rise in 1979 should not be accepted without study of registration procedures. Underregistration of births in the early 1970s was estimated at 4%. Since births are recorded by year of registration rather than year of occurrence, improved registration might include not only a more complete record of current births, but also the backlog of previously unregistered events.
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