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  • Title: A re-estimation of fertility rates in Nigeria: an application of the Gompertz relational model.
    Author: Omideyi AK.
    Journal: Genus; 1984; 40(3-4):47-76. PubMed ID: 12267211.
    Abstract:
    This study, based on data from the Nigerian Fertility, Family, and Family Planning Survey conducted in 1971-75, uses the Gompertz relational model to derive estimates of fertility for South West, Eastern, and Northern Nigeria and compares these estimates to detect regional patterns in age patterns of fertility. Based on the model, fitted age-specific fertility rates are derived. The mean estimates of fertility deemed acceptable, based on the types of errors affecting data in the various areas, were 5.5731 for the South West region, 7.2581 for the Eastern region, 4.028 for the Northern region, and 5.3271 for All Nigeria. There was no evidence of any trend in the level of fertility in South West and Eastern Nigeria or in All Nigeria. In Northern Nigeria, however, there may be a trend toward a decrease in fertility levels of women aged 20 years and over. Comparison of the fitted fertility distributions between regions suggests that Eastern Nigeria's fertility is highest at 20-40 years, while that of Northern Nigeria is lowest for that age grouping (perhaps because fertility in the latter region begins at an earlier age than in other regions). The modal ages of the distributions vary from about 15 years in Northern Nigeria to 20-25 years for South Western region women, to 25 years for Eastern Nigerian women. The modal age of childbearing for All Nigeria is about 20 years. The application of the Gompertz model is concluded to be less affected by errors than methods such as graduation and P/F ratio technique, making it appropriate for use in developing countries.
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