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  • Title: A hypothetical study of populations under constant mortality and fertility.
    Author: Gupta RB.
    Journal: Artha Vijnana; 1976 Mar; 18(1):62-81. PubMed ID: 12277045.
    Abstract:
    28 countries with different characteristics have been selected in order to observe the amount of time it takes for these different countries to reach stable age distributions. The individual populations by sex and age were projected for 150 years in 5-year intervals with the present constant mortality and fertility schedules by component method. Observations have been made by considering the following characteristics of population when it has acquired stability: age distribution; the rate of growth, birthrate, and mortality rate; the population change; the intrinsic rate of growth, birthrate and mortality rate; and approximate time taken to stabilize the population. The initial age distribution has a significant part in the amount of time it takes for a population to acquire stability, and its intrinsic rate of growth is mostly dependent upon the existing age distribution of that population. The time taken for a country's population to become stable depends upon the age distribution, fertility and mortality schedules at the beginning. It has been observed that countries having a higher intrinsic rate of growth take comparatively less time in acquiring stability than the countries having a lower intrinsic rate of growth. The mortality and fertility schedules of a country is another important phenomenon. The populations of the different countries at the point of stability were growing according to their rates of growth. No specific trend of population growth could be found among the groups of countries. Time taken for stabilizing the population is completely based upon age distributions, fertility and mortality schedules a particular country was having at the beginning. The range of time taken for different countries to acquire stability generally ranged from 100 to 135 years. Among the different countries the relationship for the time it takes to acquire stability has not been established. This is a hypothetical approach in order to obtain some idea as to how a population with different characteristics acts in the long run when some of its characteristics are assumed to be constant.
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