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  • Title: The estimation of natural sterility.
    Author: Barrett JC.
    Journal: Genus; 1986; 42(3-4):23-31. PubMed ID: 12280636.
    Abstract:
    A Monte Carlo simulation model of fertility was used to estimate the extent of natural sterility from natural fertility data. Calibration of the age incidence of natural sterility is of particular significance in the most developed countries where childbearing is often postponed until after 30 years of age. The model views women's natural fecundability as declining linearly from age 30 years to menopause. The reproductive histories of 10,000 women who married at age 22.5 years were simulated. This analysis resulted in the following percentages of women in each age group who will have no further births: 20-24 years, 5.16%; 25-29 years, 7.12%; 30-34 years, 15.15%; 35-39 years, 32.02%; 40-44 years, 67-88%; and 50-54 years, 100%. In addition, the following percentages of women were modelled as sterile by t he given age: 27.5 years, 4.8%; 32.5 years, 9.1%; 37.5 years, 14.5%; 42.5 years, 24.7%; 41.5 years, 59.3%; and 52.5 years, 97.3%. The estimated ages where higher than those found by Leridon and, with the exception of the age group 30-39 years, above those of Trussell and Wilson. At ages below 35 years, the model of sterility is linear. The comparatively high estimate for the age at sterility for women who have no births after age 25 years results from the model's assumption that there is no increase in sterility before age 28 years.
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