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  • Title: Probability distributions of number of births and their implications.
    Author: Bhattacharya BN, Nath DC.
    Journal: Janasamkhya; 1987 Dec; 5(2):73-88. PubMed ID: 12281339.
    Abstract:
    To apply models of the variation in the number if births to a couple throughout the reproductive period, it is necessary to account for variations that are dependent on age and parity. This paper presents time-dependent models for the number of live births/conceptions to a woman during given time intervals and applies these models to data derived from the Rural Development and Population Growth survey conducted in India in 1978. The reproductive span was segmented into 20-30 years and 30-35 years. Within each segment, fecundability was assumed to be constant but to vary between segments. The model assuming variability in fecundability provided a better fit to the data than the model assuming homogeneity. The data analysis suggests that about 4% of women are sterile at ages 20-35 years. The female population appears to consist of 2 groups with respect to fecundability: 1) a high-risk group (82.5%) with an average risk of conception of 0.7555 and 2) a low-risk group (17.5%) with an average conception rate of 0.2611. The average rate of conception for the 2 groups in the 20-39-year age period is 0.6607. These models can be used to demonstrate expected changes in fertility when contraceptives of varying degrees of effectiveness are used. If contraceptive effectiveness is increased 4 times, the expected number of births is decreased by 2.8 times/year.
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