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  • Title: Long-run social and economic responses of fertility in the United States.
    Author: Venieris YP, Stewart DB.
    Journal: Pak Dev Rev; 1988; 27(2):137-57. PubMed ID: 12281594.
    Abstract:
    The classic linear relationship of fertility rates, either in terms of completed family size or birth timing, to income fails to take adequately into consideration social variables, such as marriage rate, female unemployment rate, urban vs rural residence, divorce rate, and contraceptive sales levels. Even when only income is considered, its effect on fertility is not linear because the opportunity cost of children is high at both ends of a marriage -- during the 1st 2 years because income is low and during the last 6 years because income is high enough for other values, such as leisure, to compete with children. The relation between income and fertility is therefore parabolic. If one analyzes US census data from 1900 to 1977, the threshold level of permanent income at which the influence of income becomes negative is $2599. This value of permanent income occurs between 1958 and 1959, and the US birth rate began to decline in 1957. Income also affects fertility indirectly because it affects marriage rates and the timing of births. Divorce rates also affect fertility in 2 ways. They limit the completed family size of any 1 family, and they tend to have a conservative effect on risk-taking behavior, such as having children. Thus, increasing marriage rates have a positive effect on fertility; increasing divorce rate, a negative one. Female employment increases the opportunity cost of having a child, since a child may be considered as 1 kind of durable good, which competes for the woman's time. Migration from rural to urban areas also effects a decline in fertility. War affects fertility in at least 3 ways. It influences the number of men away, the number of men returning at the same time, and the amount of stress on a military family whether there is a war or not. What these various relationships indicate is that it would be premature to assume that as income increases fertility rates will necessarily decline. If the behavior of divorce and marriage rates remains stable and the rate of growth in permanent per capita income remains at 2.5%-3.0% per year, given the present age structure of the population, marriage rates, and thus fertility rates, will increase.
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