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  • Title: Economic influences on birth rates.
    Author: Ermisch J.
    Journal: Natl Inst Econ Rev; 1988 Nov; (126):71-81. PubMed ID: 12282492.
    Abstract:
    A researcher uses an econometric analysis to test his theory that economic developments influence birth rates in post World War II in Great Britain. The base of the analysis consists of a group of equilibrium relationships examining the levels of conditional birth rates (at each birth order and each mother's age) and the levels of economic variables, e.g., ratio of women's hourly wage after taxes. The leading cause of a decrease in births, especially after 1974, was an increase in women's net wages in comparison to men's net wages. Additional evidence suggested that higher women's wages increase the cost of an additional child by raising missed earnings, and this higher opportunity cost reduces the chance of another birth. On the other hand, if men's earnings are higher, couples have more children and at a young age. Further, the higher the real house prices the more likely women are to postpone starting a family and, in the case of 20-24 year old women, these high prices also deter them from having a 2nd child. Higher house prices do not affect higher order births, however. When all other things are equal, women from larger families have a tendency to begin having children in their 30s and produce smaller families than those women from smaller families. Large child allowances encourage 3rd-4th births and early motherhood. To increase fertility to replacement level over the long term, the current level of child allowances would have to double costing about 5 billion British pounds or 1.5% of the gross domestic product.
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