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  • Title: [AIDS: the economy a victim of the epidemic].
    Journal: Jeune Afr; 1989 Dec 11; (1510):68. PubMed ID: 12282835.
    Abstract:
    A recent World Bank report on development prospects in sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade contained analyses based on projected rapid population growth which failed to take into account the mortality and morbidity of AIDS. Since 1960 the annual rate of population growth for the sub-Saharan African population has increased from 2.5%-3.23%. The number of inhabitants has doubled since 1965 and may double again to 1 million by the year 2010. The World Bank recommended classic and relatively inexpensive measures to meet the challenge of population growth. The governments concerned should devote .8% of their gross national products to family planning programs and manpower training. The spread of AIDS however is likely to reduce population growth. 2 specialists concluded for example that demographic growth in Uganda will decline from 3.25% to -2.4% annually by 2020, with average life expectancy declining from 52 to 24 years. The figures must be interpreted cautiously because their statistical basis is imprecise. World Health Organization figures published in June 1989 showed only 24,886 of the 157,191 reported cases of AIDS as occurring in Africa. But in urban zones of some parts of Africa from 20-30% of the sexually active population is estimated to be infected. Some experts predict that during the 1990s AIDS will kill 300,000-1.5 million Africans. The World Bank report scarcely mentions AIDS. Although AIDS has fewer victims than dysentery, malaria, or tuberculosis, its economic impact is greater because it strikes the working age population. Policies to control HIV infections and AIDS run the risk of reducing funds available for economic investment. Increasing expenditures on medical treatment and hospitalization in household as well as government budgets will be made to the detriment of other priorities. Policies to prevent AIDS must be put into place so that this economic disaster can be averted. Information and distribution of condoms have become longterm investments in the economic future of sub-Saharan Africa.
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