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  • Title: Effect of shift in marriage age on number of children.
    Author: Agrawal P, Srivastava OP.
    Journal: Janasamkhya; 1989 Jun; 7(1):53-7. PubMed ID: 12282981.
    Abstract:
    As a result of sociocultural factors, including increased access on the part of females to education and urbanization, the average age at marriage is steadily increasing among females in India. In fact, the Government of India is attempting to limit the age at marriage to age 18 years and above. Since age at marriage is an important determinant of completed family size, there is a need for models that can take account of this trend toward a reduction in the number of years Indian women spend in a married state. The model presented in this paper derives the distribution of the time interval from marriage to nth conception and is based on the assumptions of constant fertility until menopause and nonuse of contraception. To illustrate the effect of a shift in marriage age, data from the village of Haryana were used. The average rest period associated with each live birth was assumed to be 1.365 years and the length of the fertile period 45 years. In this data set, the average age at marriage was 15.33 years, which produces a completed family size of 11 children according to the model. However, if the marriage age is shifted to 20 years, the model produces an estimate of only 7 births.
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