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  • Title: Feeding six billion.
    Author: Brown LR.
    Journal: World Watch; 1989; 2(5):32-40. PubMed ID: 12283531.
    Abstract:
    Between 1986-88 drought damage to crops caused the grain supply to decrease and the price of grain worldwide increased 50%. However, in 1989 higher prices and better weather did not result in a rebuilding of reserves lost in previous years. According to the US Agriculture Department, the 1989 harvest will be 13 million tons short of the projected 1684 million tons of consumption. If grain stock cannot be replenished this year, then when will they be replenished? There are a variety of problems causing this situation. Lack of crop land and irrigation water prevent expansion. Diminishing returns from fertilizer inputs, deforestation, soil erosion, and pollution are all decreasing yields. Growth in food production worldwide has stabilized. Between 1950-84 world grain harvest increased 2.6 times or 3%/year. But between 1985-90 that same growth was only 0.2%/year. While this is too short a time to establish a trend, it does suggest a slowdown in worldwide food production. Every year 24 billion tons of topsoil are lost to water and wind erosion, and the world population grows by 88 million annually. Together, these 2 trends indicate a pending disaster. There is no reason to believe that food production is going to continue to grow as fast as the population, thus, population growth must be drastically curtailed. The UN has changes its projected level of population stabilization from 10 billion to 14 billion based on the fact that worldwide population growth has dropped only to 1.7%. Family planning programs have not been as successful as was hoped, partly because the US has withdrawn a large amount of funding due to political pressure from conservatives. The outlook is not good, as the per capita food share shrinks, malnutrition and starvation will continue to grow. Food prices will rise sharply and many more people will be unable to afford food. In many developing countries, people spend 70% of their income on food. This is already occurring as measured by a worldwide increase in infant mortality.
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