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  • Title: [A study of departmental differences in fertility].
    Author: Damiani P, Masse H.
    Journal: J Soc Stat Paris; 1990; 131(2):68-78. PubMed ID: 12283792.
    Abstract:
    In this study, known laws of probability were adjusted to distributions of total fertility rates for French departments at different census dates from 1861 to 1982. Adjustment of a normal distribution to the departmental total fertility rates was unsatisfactory. Results were improved by considering the distributions to be the sums of 2 normal distributions, D1 and D2. The adjustment was made by a method of successive approximations. It was deduced that the general population could be decomposed into 2 populations for each of which the sum of total fertility rates followed a normal distribution. The proportion of D1 relative to D2 was calculated for each census year from 1861 to 1982. Variations through time of the average of D1 and D2 followed those of the average of D, the total fertility rates. They represented an average of 94% and 111% of the average of the entire distribution of total fertility rates. To explain the significance of the 2 distributions, factors with a strong statistical relationship to fertility were studied. Among them some indicators of population structure were selected. The proportions of the population in different age cohorts for each sex and for the 2 sexes together were analyzed, and the statistical relationship was measured using the regional census data for 1982. The strongest correlations with the total fertility rate were found for the observed proportions of the population aged 45-64 and 0-19. It appears that fertility of 1 of the subpopulations is that of a young population while fertility of the other subpopulation is that of an older population. An indicator of fertility trend was then deduced, defined as a linear function of the probability of coincidence of the experimental and theoretical age structures in the general population.
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