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  • Title: Family limitation and fertility increase.
    Author: Chojnacka H, Adegbola O.
    Journal: Genus; 1990; 66(1-2):163-93. PubMed ID: 12283868.
    Abstract:
    Researchers used data from a survey of women patients in the maternity ward during 1968-1969 and August 1978 of a hospital in Lagos, Nigeria and from the 1897 and 1926 censuses of 50 rural and urban populations in European russia to demonstrate that modernization factors that reduce mortality also increase fertility under early marital patterns. The researchers learned by examining the Nigerian data that, in a population that has recently experienced an improved standard of living just prior to the demographic transition, natural fertility rises. The pregnancy rate also increases which leads to a greater incidence of pregnancy complications. Hence more infants are born at a low birth weight and consequentially an increase in infant mortality. Yet not all populations witness this pattern. The most important find of the study was that the direction of change in fertility essentially hinges on the marital pattern current before the demographic transition begins. For example, in European Russia, 33% of the eastern provinces' rural population experienced a decline in marriages between 1897-1926 while marital fertility increased. Yet the opposite occurred among the rural marital fertility increased. Yet the opposite occurred among the rural population of the western provinces in the same period: both marital fertility and marriages fell, although the decline was stronger in fertility than in nuptiality. Presently the demographic transition theory excludes nuptiality as 1 of its consequential components. It also assumes interaction only between morality and fertility and that changes in fertility reflect changes in nuptiality. Yet evidence shows that if policy planners would include nuptiality into the theory, they could better predict the timing of sustained fertility decline. Hence population policy should be aimed at marital patterns, since affecting these more directly results in reduced fertility.
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