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  • Title: AIDS epidemiology: the past ten years, the next ten years.
    Author: Crocchiolo PR.
    Journal: Arch AIDS Res; 1991; 5(1-2):5-8. PubMed ID: 12284242.
    Abstract:
    This article assesses the current seroprevalence of HIV worldwide, examines the patterns of infection over the past 10 years, and discusses the future impact of HIV. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 8 million people have become infected with HIV since the early 1980s. As of November 1990, WHO estimates that some 800,000 people have developed AIDS. 54% of the HIV infections have occurred in Africa, 35% in the Americas, and 8% in Western Europe. The main HIV transmission routes are: 1) sexual intercourse with an infected partner (accounting for 75% of all infections); 2) HIV-infected blood or blood products, which include blood transfusions (5%), IV drug use (10%), and other needle (0.1%); and 3) perinatal transmission from infected mother to infant (10%). The article describes the 3 patterns of HIV infection so far: 1) In industrialized countries and in Latin America, HIV infections appeared in the early 1980s among homosexual men or IV drug users and then spread to the heterosexual population; 2) In Eastern and Central Africa, where heterosexual sex has been the main transmission route, infections began in the late 1970s; 3) In the rest of the world, HIV was not introduced until the mid-1980s, and because of the low prevalence rate, the main transmission route has not yet been determined. By the year 2000, WHO expects some 15-20 million HIV infections among adults and some 5-6 million AIDS cases among adults. In some industrialized countries, AIDS could become the leading cause of death among 20-40 year olds during the 1990s. At the same time, AIDS will have a devastating effect on sub-Saharan Africa's urban population, which will see a great increase in child mortality rates and in the number of orphaned children.
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