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  • Title: Population projections for Myanmar, 1983-2013.
    Author: Win Tint.
    Journal: Asia Pac Popul J; 1991 Jun; 6(2):21-54. PubMed ID: 12284415.
    Abstract:
    A researcher used 1973 and 1983 census data to examine various demographic factors which affect population growth, to forecast the future size of the population, and to examine socioeconomic effects of rapid population growth on Myanmar. The researcher had to adjust 1983 data since remote rural areas were not included in the census. Since data quality was flawed, indirect estimation techniques were used to estimate fertility, mortality, and life expectancy at birth. The researcher used the UN general assumption model to make 9 populations projections. The medium variant showed that the population would increase from 35,442,972-64,504,980 between 1983-2013 at an annual rate of 2.02%. For the low and medium variants, the percentage of the population 15 years old would fall from 38.75% to 28.84% and 29.53% respectively between 1983-2013. The low variant projection showed an increase to 40.95%. The dependency ratio was highest in 1973 (.87), but fell to .82 by 1983. The low and high variant projections showed the dependency ratios to remain high until 1998, then they would steadily fall to .56 and .58 by 2013. The high variant projection revealed a slight rise throughout the 30 year period with the dependency ratio peaking in 2003. Rapid population growth in Myanmar reduced the availability of land. Between 1974 and 1990, sown area under various crops increased only 8% while population grew 22%. In terms of health, Myanmar would need an increased number of physicians and nurses at all variants in 2013 if the ratio of health personnel to population could be held constant (2.2 and 1.6 respectively). At the high variant, the numbers would need to more than double (8381-17,739 and 5335-12,974 respectively) to at least maintain 1983 services. The number of teachers who be needed in 2013 would also need to increase more than 2 times the 1983 number at the high variant projection if the ratio of teachers to students could be held at 1:39 (134, 116-341, 367). Therefore Myanmar needs family planning to effect socioeconomic development.
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