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  • Title: Faster growth, more diversity in U.S. projections.
    Author: Pollard K.
    Journal: Popul Today; 1993 Feb; 21(2):3, 10. PubMed ID: 12286198.
    Abstract:
    Population projections for the US between 1992 and 2050 are expected to show more diversity, older age groups, and greater numbers. Projections are expected to be revised every odd year. The 1991 projections reflect for the first time information on Asian Americans and Native Americans, and the rate of impact of AIDS. Hispanic and non-Hispanic ethnicity is available for all racial groups. The projections assumed that 1) future fertility will remain at present levels; 2) future immigration will also remain stable; and 3) fertility and mortality differentials by racial/ethnic groups will continue their current upward trends. New projections are different, because the old projections assumed that total fertility for all racial/ethnic groups would converge at 1.8 by 2050. Fertility is expected to reach 2.12 in 2050. The Immigration Act of 1990 permits increased immigration; immigration's share of population increase is expected to be 32-38% in 2020 and almost 50% in 2050. Life expectancy may improve slowly to 82.1 years in 2050, instead of 79.9 years as projected in 1990. The population count was 248.7 million in 1990 and is expected to increase to 274.8 million in 2000, and 382.7 million in 2050. The new projections do not estimate leveling off by about 2035, but rather continuing growth. Racial and ethnic diversity will grow due to slow growth among non-Hispanic whites, steady growth among African-Americans and Native Americans, and rapid growth Hispanics and Asian-Americans. The non-Hispanic white population will decline from 76% in 1990 to 68% in 2010, 60% in 2030, and 53% in 2050. The number of non-Hispanic whites will continue to grow to 208 million in 2030 and then decline to 202 million by 2050. Non-Hispanic blacks will reach 38.2 million in 2010 and 57.3 million in 2050, which amounts to 13% of the total population in 2010 and 15% in 2050. Hispanics will increase from 22.4 million in 1990 and 39.3 million in 2010, which means Hispanics would then be the dominant minority group. By 2030 1 in 5 persons will be over 65 years.
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