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  • Title: AIDS 2000.
    Author: Zavriew L.
    Journal: WorldAIDS; 1993 Jul; (28):6-9. PubMed ID: 12286594.
    Abstract:
    The Harvard-based Global AIDS Policy Coalition projects that 120 million people will be infected with HIV worldwide by the year 2000. While this is one of the higher projections of impending total HIV infection, and actual HIV prevalence may eventually be less, one may nonetheless be certain that new infections occur daily and AIDS will cause many deaths worldwide in the years ahead. Changes in sex behavior will reduce new transmission, but the number of AIDS cases will continue to mount as a result of transmission 10 years ago. SubSaharan Africa has been the region hardest hit by HIV and AIDS over the past decade. The frontline, however, is expected to move from Africa to more densely populated South and Southeast Asia over the next few years. It is projected that by year 2000, more than 40% of all people infected with HIV worldwide will be in Asia, followed by subSaharan Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. This forecast holds even in the absence of HIV prevalence data from heavily populated China. Even though the incidence of maternal-fetal HIV transmission is increasing in Africa, the overall epidemic in the region may stabilize by the end of the decade. Concern has therefore been voiced over the potential redirection of funds for prevention programs from Africa to Asia. In Latin America, the AIDS epidemic is just beginning; governments need to respond without delay. The World Health Organization estimates 50,0000 cases of HIV in Eastern Europe and the former USSR, and 75,000 cases in northern Africa and the Middle East. Far more than the US$250 million spent annually on AIDS/HIV in developing countries is needed as well as a revised approach to the issue. The recent World Health Assembly agreed to consider establishing an UN agency to coordinate UN agency AIDS interventions and address prevention, care, and the socioeconomic impact of AIDS. The situation of the pandemic in Brazil, India, and Thailand is also briefly described.
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