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  • Title: Population and development in Egypt. Part 1. Birth and death on the Nile.
    Author: Gallagher CF.
    Journal: Am Univ Field Staff Rep Afr; 1981; (31):1-14. PubMed ID: 12311041.
    Abstract:
    Discussion focus in this report of population and development in Egypt is on birth and death. The estimated crude birth rate (CBR) in 1979 was 39.3/1000 and the death rate (DR) 10.3/1000, with a consequent rate of natural increase (RNI) of 2.9%. These statistics provide little information about demographic trends of recent years and future probabilities. The overall increase in population during the decade of the 1970s was more than 9 million, compared to slightly less than 7 million during the 1960s. There has been a steady increase in the CBR each year since 1972, when a slow, secular decline came to an end. Mortality has recently been declining faster than expected. The decline in general mortality is in good part because of recent reductions in infant (under 1 year) and early childhood (1-4 years) mortality. The combination of recently resurgent fertility and declining mortality means that the Egyptian RNI is now higher than it was in 1952. It is the loss of momentum and the wasting of precious time in the race between development and population growth that must be emphasized. There is no other developing country where the RNI declined by as much as Egypt's did -- from 2.74% to just under 2% -- and where such decline was followed by a reversal. With the benefit of hindsight, there are grounds for believing that the 1966-1972 fertility decline was less a consequence of the National Family Planning Program than it was of other concomitant factors. The number of acceptors of the government programs was never very high in relation to the target population. By the end of the period of decline in 1973, the program was reaching less than 8% as oral contraceptive (OC) acceptors out of a total of just more than 5 million married women aged 15-44 with an addition 70,000 IUD insertions per year. Weaknesses in the program include the choice of the model, the strategy used to put it into effect, and numerous details of its execution; a technicist approach with little consideration given to familial, social, economic or cultural pressures; failure to train personnel adequately; and a top-heavy bureaucratic framework. The 9 points of the population policy goal for reducing the birth rate are listed.
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