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  • Title: Oil-exporting status, quality of life, and fertility: a cross national study.
    Author: Hunter SR, Stokes CS, Warland RH.
    Journal: Genus; 1982; 38(3-4):129-44. PubMed ID: 12312901.
    Abstract:
    It has been suggested that unless the rapid increase in income in the oil-exporting countries is accompanied by more equitable distribution of modern goods and services, the impact on health, literacy, and fertility is likely to be negligible. This study represents an initial attempt to examine the possible effects of the oil-exporting status of nations on their income, quality of life, and fertility. Data from 150 countries were used, and the Physical Quality of Life Index (PQLI) was utilized instead of traditional measures of development. Some findings are: 1) the variable showing the strongest direct relationship to fertility was physical quality of life (p=-.756) which is consistent with the distributional hypothesis; 2) per capita gross national product (GNP) and oil-exporting status showed weaker paths to fertility and their signs were in opposite directions; 3) per capita GNP showed a moderate negative relationship to fertility (p=-.171) while oil-exporting status had a positive path of about the same size (p= .155), thus per capita income and oil-exporting status had only about 1/5 the net relationship to fertility as did physical quality of life; 4) the indirect relationship of income as channeled through PQLI was over twice as large as the measured direct relationship, so that the importance of per capita GNP for lower fertility is primarily through its influence on the physical quality of life within a nation; 5) oil-exporting status was associated with lower physical quality of life and the latter was strongly related to higher fertility; and 6) in the long run, the relationship between oil-exporting status and quality of life should be positive. If separate analyses are conducted, the division should be made along an oil-exporter/non-exporter dichotomy, rather than a more developed/less developed country categorization. It is concluded that nations with relatively high life expectancies high levels of literacy, and low levels of infant mortality exhibited lower fertility than did nations with poorer records on these dimensions. While higher per capita incomes were significantly related to lower fertility, the greater portion of the relationship was channeled through the quality of life. Once the effect of the oil-exporting nations is controlled, developed and underdeveloped countries do not differ widely in the relationships between per capita GNP, physical quality of life, and fertility.
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