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  • Title: [Demographic extrapolations in the very short run].
    Author: De Beer Jaa.
    Journal: Maandstat Bevolking; 1985 Jun; 33(6):44-50. PubMed ID: 12313824.
    Abstract:
    The accuracy of three methods of preparing short-term population forecasts is compared. These methods, which are the Census-X11 method, the Box-Jenkins method, and structural time-series models, are tested using Dutch demographic data for parts of the years 1979 to 1983. The results show that the prediction errors from using these three methods do not differ significantly and that the best forecasts are obtained by averaging the forecasts derived by the separate methods. (summary in ENG)
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