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  • Title: [Population and development: facts and reflections].
    Author: United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia CELADE.
    Journal: Notas Poblacion; 1985 Aug; 13(38):65-122. PubMed ID: 12313897.
    Abstract:
    This paper highlights the role of demographic variables in the development process. An awareness of the complex interaction between population indices and social and economic indicators has enhanced the need for deomographic policies within development planning. Between 1960 and 1985 Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a fertility decline; the global fertility rate dropped from 6 to 4 children per woman. Mortality also decreased, raising life expectancy from 57 to 64.5 years. Infant mortality varies greatly among countries, ranging from 20 to 125 deaths/1000 live births. Within countries, infant mortality also shows wide differentials by ethnic group and socioeconomic level. International migration has emerged as a key demographic variable since 1970. Most Latin American countries lost population because of migration, primarily to the US and other developed countries. Nevertheless, the overall population has risen at an annual rate of 2.3%. Changes in the age composition show a gradual aging of the population. The proportion of those under 15 dropped from 49% to 39% between 1960-65 and 1980-85, while those over 65 increased their share from 3% to more than 4%. Urbanization rose from 50% in 1960 to 66% in 1980; it has, however, slowed down since 1970. Latin America's dependent development suggests that the region may not follow the path of the developed nations. The concern is no longer what, how and how much is produced, but who benefits from the production process. The governments' focus on distribution implies that demographic and health indices can improve even when economic indicators remain stagnant. Population dynamics thus need to be studied within specific political contexts. Projections suggest a continued decline in fertility and mortality, and reduced migration. Demographic variables are considered exogenous to the planning process. Alternative forecasts are rarely tied into different socioeconomic strategies. This gap needs to be remedied by incorporating demographic data as an input in both problem definition and policy formulation.
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