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  • Title: [Estimates of fertility in Brazil obtained using Arriaga's method].
    Author: Leite VD.
    Journal: Bol Demogr; 1982 Mar; 13(1):11-24. PubMed ID: 12314026.
    Abstract:
    In Brazil, as in the majority of developing countries, information from vital statistics is incomplete. This requires the use of indirect estimation techniques to estimate fertility rates. The methods of Mortara, Brass, and Arretx have already been applied to Brazilian data. Eduardo Arriaga, a demographer with the US Census Bureau, has proposed an alternative technique for estimating fertility when information exists from 2 consecutive surveys about live-born children, classified according to the mother's age. To the contrary of the Brass technique, which assumes constant fertility, the hypothesis implicit in Arriaga's method is that the average number of children born per woman varies linearly in the time interval under consideration. In the Brazilian case, where evidence indicates that fertility is declining, Arriaga's technique should be able to determine the validity of this tendency. The procedure used follows the following steps: 1) Obtain the average number of children per woman by individual ages in the survey data, which is divided into 5-year groups. This is followed by a process of intercollation. 2) Estimate the average number of children per woman by individual ages for a year before the 1st survey and a year after the last through linear interpolation. If information is available for more than 2 surveys, an estimate is made for the year preceding and following the data in the intermediate surveys. 3) Specific fertility rates are calculated based on the increase in the average number of children for each cohort. In the case of intermediate surveys, the average between the values of of the preceding and following years are taken. Arriaga's method is applied to Brazilian information, and the results are presented in a series of graphs and tables. Total fertility rate estimates for Brazil from 1941 to 1980 are presented, falling from 5.86 in 1941, to 5.67 in 1972, to 3.82 in 1980. Arriaga's technique also permits calculation of the average number of children for each cohort, making it possible to verify the compatability of information about parturition coming from various sources. Several instances of incompatability of data, particularly in the older cohorts, appears. It is recommended that other methods of determining actual fertility be applied to Brazilian data, to establish the level and trend of Brazilian fertility with a certain level of assurance.
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