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  • Title: The effect of sex preference on fertility and family planning: empirical evidence.
    Author: Arnold F.
    Journal: Popul Bull UN; 1987; (23-24):44-55. PubMed ID: 12315521.
    Abstract:
    This paper addresses the issue of whether the prevalence of a strong desire for children of a particular sex would be a significant obstacle to the success of family planning programs in achieving rapid fertility declines. The author used a recently developed method to produce more precise quantitative estimates of sex preference, based on data from demographic surveys for 27 countries. Estimates were derived which indicate that a preference for sons has a smaller impact on fertility than is generally expected, since the random biological processes insure that most couples will bear their desired minimum number of sons and daughters at a relatively low parity. Possible extensions of the method include changing the dependent variable, taking into account the order of birth, introducing statistical controls, and estimating the effect of alternative rates of fertility decline. When the effect of a preference for sons on family planning in China was projected under alternative assumptions about the future course of fertility, it was found to be insensitive to the rate of fertility decline. The analysis found little to support the hypothesis that sex preference is likely to have a greater impact on family planning effectiveness as the overall level of fertility declines.
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