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  • Title: Aging in Kerala: one more population problem?
    Author: Rajan SI.
    Journal: Asia Pac Popul J; 1989 Jun; 4(2):19-48. PubMed ID: 12316022.
    Abstract:
    In India, in 1981, the number of persons over age 60 was 42.5 million; this number is expected to increase to 75.9 million in 2001. The average proportion of elderly (over age 60) in India as a whole was 6.3% in 1981; for Kerala, the percentage was 7.6%. Kerala's growth rate was always faster than India's as a whole, until 1971 when the annual growth rate declined. Population projections predict that the elderly population in Kerala will increase from 2.2 million in 1986 to 4.6 million in 2011 to 8.3 million in 2026. Factors which contribute to population aging include 1) decreases in fertility and mortality; 2) decline in the infant mortality rates, from 242/1000 live births (1911-1920) to 30/1000 live births in 1985; 3) from 1971-1981, a substantial improvement in the mortality rates for ages 0-14, but only a marginal change among youth and a moderate decline in the middle ages and among the elderly; 4) except for ages 35-39, male mortality rates higher for men than for women; 5) the highest life expectancy in India, which is also increasing; and 6) a projected total fertility rate of 2.3 for 19861990. Changes in age composition include 1) the percentage of those aged 0-14 years declined 42.6% in 1961 to 35% in 1981, and the percentage of elderly increased from 5.8% in 1961 to 7.5% in 1981; 2) in all 3 census periods, 1961, 1971, and 1981, the percentage of females aged 0-14 was smaller than males, but larger in all other age groups; 3) over 80% of Kerala's elderly population reside in rural areas; 4) projections of population by broad age group between 1986 and 2026 show a continuous decline in the age group 0-14 and an increase among the elderly; 5) in 2026, more women will be in older age groups than men; 6) in 2026, the number of men and women in the working age population will substantially increase; 7) in 2026, there will be a marked decline in the proportion of children; 8) the youth dependency ratios are expected to decrease from 52.9 in 1986 to 37.3 in 2026, while the elderly dependency ratios are expected to increase from 13 in 1986 to 30.9 in 2026. By 2026, Kerala will have 6.3 million people aged 60-74 and 2 million people aged 75 and older.
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