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  • Title: India in the demographic trap.
    Author: Reddy PH.
    Journal: Janasamkhya; 1989 Dec; 7(2):93-102. PubMed ID: 12316277.
    Abstract:
    Since 1980, India has experienced no further declines in the birth rate while mortality continues to drop. The birth rate has remained constant at 32-33/1000 despite dramatic increases in the proportion of couples protected from unwanted pregnancy from 24% in 1980-81 to 41% in 1986-87. Without a national family planning program, India's birth rate certainly would have increased substantially during this period. Among the social factors that appear to have undone the effects of rising contraceptive prevalence are increases in the proportion of women in the 15-29 year age group, improved maternal nutritional and health status so that fecundability is increasing, and the erosion of traditional customs such as prolonged breastfeeding and remarriage by widows. In terms of economic conditions, there have been no improvements in the 1980s in per capita income that would push India into the 3rd stage of the demographic transition. Of concern is the theory that, when societies become trapped too long in this 2nd stage, economic decline and ecological deterioration occur. At present, foodgrain production has been able to keep pace with population increases, but such production cannot increase indefinitely without soil erosion, deforestation, and other environmental degradations. Moreover, when no more grasslands and forests are available for conversion to cropland, the number of landless households will increase. In fact, the number of landless households has already grown from 15 million in 1961 to 26 million in 1981 and is projected to reach 44 million by the year 2000. Among the implications of landlessless are agrarian conflicts, rural political unrest, low life expectancy, malnutrition, and illiteracy. To avoid the consequences of stagnation in the rate of fertility decline, the Government of India is urged to adopt an aggressive population control effort.
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