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  • Title: Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.
    Author: Hashmi SS.
    Journal: Pak Popul Rev; 1990; 1(1):13-53. PubMed ID: 12317085.
    Abstract:
    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment. Past trends in the labor force, employment and unemployment, and employment by major industry are reported. The labor force participation rate of 29.6% in 1985 is among the lowest in the world. The age structure of the population, inadequate human resource development, and underreporting of females in the labor force account for the low rates. Population grew by 96.5% between 1961 and 81, but labor force increased 77.3% and employment 74.4%. The greatest growth was in the nonagricultural sector. Prospective trends show agricultural labor force growing from 15.1 million in 1981 to 20.2 million in 2006, which is expected to put pressure on agricultural land. Female nonagricultural sector labor force is expected to grow due to increased literacy and fertility declines.
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