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  • Title: A strategy for reducing numbers? Response.
    Author: Rohde JE.
    Journal: Health Millions; 1991 Dec; 17(5):24-5. PubMed ID: 12317109.
    Abstract:
    While there may be no documented evidence that mortality decline is a causative factor in demographic transition, there is a close association between reductions in mortality and fertility. The Indian experience of more than 40 years shows that consistent efforts in the promotion of family planning will be rewarded with demographic transition. In the Indian state of Kerala, population 30 million, improving child survival, female literacy, strict child labor laws, and effective high coverage primary health care reduced mortality and fertility. Its infant mortality rate is 22/100 births, which is 25% of the national average. Its birth rate is 20/1000 and is continuing to fall. In the past decade population growth was only 14% compared to 25% nationally and 28% in the northern states. If Kerala's figures were applied to all of India, there would be 2 million less infant deaths and 8 million less births. The impact of reducing infant mortality on population growth in raw numbers in insignificant. With a mortality rate of 150/1000 there are 850 survivors. If the mortality rate is cut in half there will be only a .18% increase in population, but with a 50% reduction in infant suffering and death. Historically such mortality declines are associated with a 25% or more decline in fertility. This is the reason that UNICEF has been a long-time advocate of child survival programs as an integral part of population control measures. Euthanasia is surely not the solution to the population problem. The daily loss of 40,000 childhood lives is a tragic part of the human experience. However, helping these children to become and stay healthy is the best method of reducing population.
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