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  • Title: Fertility levels and trends in South Asia: an assessment and prospects.
    Author: Rele JR.
    Journal: Genus; 1992; 48(1-2):133-54. PubMed ID: 12317864.
    Abstract:
    In 1989 India's population was estimated at 813.4 million, Bangladesh had 112.3 million, Pakistan had 109.1 million, Nepal had 18.1 million, and Sri Lanka had 17.2 million. In these the countries the total fertility rates (TFRs) in 1980-85 were: 3.25 children per woman in Sri Lanka, 4.75 in India, 6.15 in Bangladesh, 6.25 in Nepal, and 7.00 in Pakistan. In South Asia TFRs in quinquennial periods from 1960-65 to 1985-90 were 6.03, 5.96, 5.76, 5.27, 5.14, and 4.72, respectively. The fertility decline has been greatest in Sri Lanka, moderate in India, marginal in Bangladesh and Nepal, and negligible in Pakistan. The TFR in India remained high around 6 until 1961-66; a decline began after 1966 with a TFR of 5.78 in 1966-71, 5.37 in 1971-76, and 4.65 in 1976-81. Bangladesh had a TFR of about 7 and a crude birth rate (CBR) of about 50 up to about 1975. A slight decline in fertility was apparent during the later part of the 1970s, but more convincingly during the 1980s. In Pakistan the TFR estimates from quinquennial surveys indicated declining fertility from about 7 during the 1960s to about 6.5 some time during the 1970s. The surveys conducted in Nepal during 1971-78 found a TFR between 6.3 and 6.4. The National Fertility and Family Planning survey conducted in 1986 gave a lower TFR of 6.02, which may indicate declining fertility. In Sri Lanka the UN estimated a TFR of 5.74 for 1950-55 and 5.44 for 1955-60. The TFR in 1981 was 3.71, and in 1982-87 it was 2.8. Differentials in marital fertility by socioeconomic variables (urban versus rural residence, wife's education, and wife's work status) are almost absent in Pakistan, marginal in Bangladesh and Nepal, but more distinct in India and Sri Lanka. The percentage of married women in reproductive ages using contraception has been rising steadily in all countries. The percentage of couples using contraception in the mid 1980s was: 61.7% in Sri Lanka, 38.7% in India, 25.3% in Bangladesh, 15.1% in Nepal, and 9.1% in Pakistan.
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