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  • Title: Estimating the incidence of induced abortion in Italy.
    Author: Figa'talamanca I.
    Journal: Genus; 1976; 32(1-2):91-107. PubMed ID: 12334853.
    Abstract:
    This attempts to estimate the incidence of induced abortion in Italy using a number of reproductive models and estimates of contraceptive use and effectiveness. The models of Henry and Metiner are based on assumptions of uncontrolled fertility of all women of reproductive age with single women assumed to be as much at risk as married women. These yield abortion estimates of 2.78-3.64 million a year. The actual situation is probably closer to the method of Larsen, which eliminates single women and women over age 44 but assumes uncontrolled fertility. Surveys have shown that contraceptive use, especially among working-class Italian couples, is irregular and most traditional methods such as coitus interruptus. This method estimates .98 million abortions a year. If the same assumptions are made but corrected for shorter birth intervals, the Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques method, an estimate of 1.45 million is obtained. The Larson method was then modified for 2/3 of all married women using contraception with 60% efficiency, with 30% efficiency, and 2/3 at 30% with 2% using contraception 100% efficiently. These estimates are .22, .60, and .50 million. The method of Tietze and Bongaarts with fertility adjusted to age groups and various assumptions of fertility control gives .96 million abortions in the contraception dominant model, 2.26 million in the abortion dominant model, and .63 million in the abortion used after contraceptive failure model. Actual data on contraceptive usage is unavailable so it is impossible to make an accurate estimate.
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