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  • Title: Several demographic projection techniques.
    Author: Beekman JA.
    Journal: Rural Demogr; 1981; 8(1):1-11. PubMed ID: 12338515.
    Abstract:
    Describes course work in demography at Ball State University, Indiana. Various mathematical techniques used in demography are examined, and applied to data from Bangladesh. After establishing a simple mathematical model for projecting the population of Bangladesh at 10 year intervals, the need for reexamining such projections in the light of other variables is shown. As lowered birth rates may be expected as the distribution of population shifts among rural and urban areas, a method for examining migration patterns is developed. The method described uses a Markov chain, a sequence of random variables indexed to suggest random evolution. Statistical estimation of transition probabilities is explored and the ergodic theorem explained and applied to obtain long duration probabilities of population shifts. Other ways in which demographic projections can be made more accurate are briefly noted. The importance of recognizing the dramatic effects of geometric population growth, as a step toward solution of the worldwide population problem and to plan for improvements in quality of life, is emphasized.
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