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  • Title: Sub-national differentials in New Zealand fertility, 1971-76.
    Author: Khawaja MA, Hockey RL.
    Journal: Q Demogr Bull; 1979 Sep; 3(2):4-17. PubMed ID: 12338956.
    Abstract:
    The study objectives were to examine subnational differentials in New Zealand fertility during 1971-76 and to investigate whether or not the general fertility decline in New Zealand over the 1971-76 period was characterized by distinctive regional patterns. 2 fertility measures provided the statistical basis for this fertility analysis: the age specific fertility rate and the total fertility rate. Age spcific fertility rates (ASFR) were calculated from live births registered during the calendar years 1971 and 1976, classified by age group and usual residence of mother, and total female populations in the appropriate age groups as enumerated at the 1971 and 1976 Censuses of Population and Dwellings. Between 1971-76 the total fertility rate dropped from 3.18-2.27 children/woman. In relative terms the fertility decline in New Zealand during 1971-76 (29%) was substantially greater than that during the preceding 5-year period (7%). There were essential differences in the demographic composition and population growth patterns of the North and the South Islands. The North Island is more urbanized, has the country's major commercial and industrial centers, and though smaller in area size contains over 70% of the country's population. It attracts the bulk of external immigrants and gains from the net interisland movement of population. It is most likely for these reasons that throughout the 20th century the North Island has supported a much higher rate of population growth than the South Island. In relative terms, the decline in fertility during 1971-76 was fractionally lower in the North Island, 28.1% against 30.0% in the South Island. Consequently, the North South differential in the total fertility rate widened from 7% in 1971 to 10% in 1976, with the South Island experiencing almost "replacement level" fertility in 1976. These trends confirm the widening North South gap in average family size indicated by the 1971 Census data on children ever born to ever married women. Among the individual 19 Regions, the declines in total fertility rates during the 1971-76 period ranged from less than 25% in Waikato, Taranaki, and Aorangi to over 34% in Otago. With the exception of Aorangi, none of the 7 South Island Regions recorded a fertility decline of less than 28%. In 3 Regions it was over 30%. Among the 12 North Island Regions only 2 (Auckland and Manawatu) experienced such relatively large falls in fertility. The larger and more urbanized regions have experienced generally lower fertility than the smaller and less urbanized ones; the fertility rates in nonurban areas significantly exceed those prevalent in the main urban areas. At ages 25 and older, in percentage terms, the 1971-76 decline in fertility for the total population varied directly with age; the fertility rate for the 25-29 age group fell by 24.0%, that for the 40-44 year group fell by 51.4%.
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