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  • Title: [Changes in the demographic structure of the European region. II].
    Author: Klinger A.
    Journal: Stat Szle; 1983 Feb; 61(2):117-34. PubMed ID: 12339513.
    Abstract:
    This study is an enlarged version of the lecture given at the meeting organized by the European Regional Office of the World Health Organization between March 22-26, 1982 in Bern Switzerland. Fertility developed differently in the European regions after World War II. General tendencies became differentiated while a certain convergency has been observable since the 1970s. In a group of European countries, mostly Northern and Western Europe, fertility increased steadily after World War II; the number of births stabilized itself at a level significantly exceeding the reproductive rate up until 1965. It was then followed by a decrease which accelerated mostly in the late 1970s. It lead, in almost every country in this group, to a decrease in fertility, much below a level that could ensure simple reproduction. In some countries, stability or samll increases are now observable. However, the total fertility rate has remained very low. A small increase in fertility is likely to be expected in these countries until the end of the century; it will probably be between 1.7-1.8. The changes in Southern Europe are entirely different. Here there is an observable increase as compared to prewar figures when fertility was generally high. An almost continuous slow decrease presented itself and became more apparent in the 1970s. Fertility rate is still above reproduction (it is equal to 2.1) but it will turn in the opposite direction with a further decrease in the near future. In Eastern Europe, the decrease in fertility has become more and more pronounced since the 1950s and achieved its lowest level in the mid-1960s. Thereafter, an increase in fertility has been observed, due partly to the measures of population policy. It resulted in a positive reproduction (total fertility=2.2) in the countries of the region contrary to earlier adverse figures. However, it is likely to decrease again and will remain below the level of growth by the end of the century. The situation is essentially similar with regard to fertility trends in the Soviet Union; the only difference is that the decrease began at a higher level and slowed at a lower rate. Due to the present upswing, total fertility becomes stable at about 2.4 and a smaller decrease can be expected only by the end of the century. In conclusion, the total fertility rate of 2.7 in many European countries in the 1950s is now stabilizing at about 2.1 between 1975-1990 and may drop to 2.0 in the last decade of the century. Having discussed the overall indicators of crude birthrate and total fertility rate, the author also deals with the changes in fertility according to mothers' age, in fertility differences, in sequences of births, in births out-of-wedlock, and in family planning and birth control. (author's modified)
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