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  • Title: [Speech by Oscar Julian Bardeci, director of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia (CELADE), at the Latinamerican Regional Meeting prior to the International Conference on Population in recognition of the Second Meeting on Population by the Committee of Upper-Level Government Experts (CEGAN), Havana, Cuba, November 16-19, 1983].
    Author: Bardeci OJ.
    Journal: Notas Poblacion; 1983 Dec; 11(33):151-64. PubMed ID: 12339528.
    Abstract:
    This work examines the relationship between population growth and economic development in Latin America and assesses progress in the 10 years since the Bucharest World Population Conference. The Latin American population increased from about 159 million in 1950 to 275 million in 1970 and around 325 million in 1980. The rate of growth reached a maximum of 2.8%/year in the early 1970s and has now declined to about 2.3%/year. The regional growth rate is a product of population dynamics that differ greatly in individual countries. Crude birth rates declined in every country of Latin America between 1975-80, but still exceeded 40/1000 in 1980-85 in Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Current fertility is the result of the different trajectories of the demographic transition in different countries. While fertility in Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay underwent a slow but sustained decline that began prior to 1960, other countries including Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela began an accelerated fertility decline in the 1960s that diffused rapidly through all age and social groups. Other countries have still not entered a definite phase of fertility decline. Mortality rates have declined appreciably in Latin America in the past few decades although they remain high in some countries. After the end of World War II and until the mid-1970s, most countries of the region experienced rapid economic growth coupled with profound changes in the productive structure. The industrial labor force grew in almost all countries along with urbanization, the decline of agricultural employment, and the increase of the tertiary sector. These and other important economic advances through the mid-1970s occurred despite rapid population growth, and the beginning of the fertility decline coincided with slowing economic growth that saw negative rates in 1981-82. Various studies have shown that not all population sectors were incorporated in the process of economic and social development. The proportion of the population in active age groups has increased dramatically, but no corresponding increase in employment opportunities has occurred. The informal sector has absorbed most of the excess growth, a trend reflected in the exclusion of a large segment of the population from the fruits of economic progress. Population growth and increased life expectancy have created demands for more retirement benefits, health and educational services, transportation, recreation, and housing. Nevertheless, it cannot be concluded that rapid population growth necessarily has negative consequences for economic development or social welfare. There are indications that the problem of poverty in Latin America could be solved if the political will to do so existed; obstacles to overcoming poverty are not primarily material or population-related. Urbanization, settlement of marginal areas, and relative decline of agricultural areas are 3 trends in spatial distribution of varying intensity and repercussions in different countries.
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