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  • Title: [Determining a level of immigration for Quebec: why and how?].
    Author: Gagne M, Baillargeon M, Benjamin C, Audet B.
    Journal: Cah Que Demogr; 1983 Oct; 12(2):207-15. PubMed ID: 12340132.
    Abstract:
    In the late 1960s, Quebec demonstrated its willingness to influence migration by creating a Ministry of Immigration. The goal of the Ministry changed over the course of a decade from assuring harmonious integration of immigrants to obtaining a greater role in recruitment and selection as well as in reception and establishment. In the early 1970s the Canadian government undertook a significant revision of its immigration policies. The most significant change was probably the requirement of an annual estimate of the number of immigrants judged opportune to admit during a particular time period. to be preceded by consultations with the provinces concerning demographic needs and the labor market. A 1978 agreement between Quebec and the Canadian government gave Quebec a greater role in immigrant selection and recruitment, and in effect allowed it to develop its own immigration policy. Ability to absorb potential immigrants became the primary criterion in setting quotas for Quebec. The approach of the federal government has not changed greatly since the new policy came into use. The extent of annual net immigration judged desirable has changed from about 75,000 persons initially to about 55,000 more recently. The federal government has always viewed immigration as a possible solution to labor market problems, but estimates of manpower needs became very volatile in the late 1970s with the general rise in rates of unemployment, and survey results lost importance as a source of guidance. The government estimated that 20 to 25 thousand immigrants selected to fill specific manpower needs could be accomodated annually in the 1980s, but the collapse of the labor market following the economic crisis caused a downward revision in estimates for 1982-83 to 8000 to 10,000 workers with jobs already in hand. In order to participate in planning of immigration, Quebec had to develop a research program desinged to identify its capacity to absorb immigrants each year. The 1st step was to try to measure the impact of immigration using a framework of demoeconomic projections aided by a behavior model. 3 levels of immigration ranging from 15,000 to 30,000 annually were compared to a control case of no immigration in order to detect impact. Growth contributed by immigration is not expected to help solve the 3 major demographic problems expected over the next 20 years: the fertility decline, aging of the population, and emigration. Immigration does however exacerbate unemployment although it does not cause it. Economic constraints on immigration in the early 1980s are due more to poor prospects of growth than to the impact of immigration on growth. The suggested numbers of immigrants of 15,200 in 1983, 16,000 in 1984, and 17,000 in 1985 almost constitute minima given the probable immigration of family members and refugees.
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