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  • Title: The population problem and policy in Mainland China 1949-1980: a demographic and anthropological observation.
    Author: Yin CC.
    Journal: Kao Ku Jen Lei Hsueh Kan; 1981 Dec; (42):95-118. PubMed ID: 12340143.
    Abstract:
    This research focuses on Mainland China's population problems and the formation of population policy. It attempts to analyze the relationships between economy and population and between modernization and Communist party decisionmaking. The second hand data used from 4 sources: related newspapers, magazines, official reports and documents from Mainland China; some related Western studies; some Communist China watchers' reports and studies from Hong Kong and the Republic of China; and some related studies of demographic, social, and economic theory. The analysis covers: population growth the Mainland China; sociocultural background of population growth; Communist China's point of view of population problems; Communist China's economy and population problems; and a diachronic approach to population policy. The August 1979 article "For the Realization of the Four Modernizations" suggests that Communist China faces a crisis. First, from the macroeconomic viewpoint Marxian ideology must be reconciled with Malthus' theory. As a result of the increasingly ambitious mainlandwide goals of trimming population growth, the Communit regime set a goal of lowering the natural population growth rate to 0.5% by 1985 and zero population growth at 2000. It also established an incentive/disincentive policy to reach the goal of a 1-child family. In the sphere of economic development, they turn to a nonsocialist model which seems to be a revision back to Liu Shao-chi's line. Finally, it seems at this time that the top officianls realize the need to raise the standard of living for the people. Yet, the question remains as to how long this policy can survive. 30 years after Mainland China became the biggest human laboratory for Communism the Communists have failed to solve most of the salient problems, including educational and scientific development, cultural development, socioeconomic development, and the population problem. They also have created many unprecedented problems, including a low standard of living and a low per capita income, a lack of incentive among the working people, and numerous power struggles and economic policy vacillations. To carry out the 4 modernizations Mainland China is giving up the Maoist and Marxist line. The policy is shifting to revisionism. It is also necessary to reconcile with the Malthusian theory in order to carry out the birth control campaign. The population is 80% rural. More than 50% of the total populations is in the 0-21 age group. The Communist Party always attempts political solutions to solve the population problem, and it now uses the reward and penalty system. The regime attempts to create the image that the 1-child family policy will decide the success or failure of the 4 modernizations. It is believed that the success or failure of the 4 modernizations depends upon the reformation of the regime's institution as a whole rather than a single policy -- the 1-child family.
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