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  • Title: Economic dependency and fertility in Asia and Latin America, 1960-1980.
    Author: Cutright P, Adams R.
    Journal: Comp Soc Res; 1984; 7():111-32. PubMed ID: 12340255.
    Abstract:
    This paper assesses the likely value of the dependency hypothesis -- the view that the degree of economic dependency on capitalist core nations is a key factor in determining levels or trends in fertility among less developed countries. It reviews contemporary theoretical and empirical work on fertility transitions in Ekuropean countries along with some new perspectives on recent fertility trends in less developed nations. The paper also discusses theoretical justifications for expecting or not expecting dependency effects on fertility and examines comparative analyses that tests for spuriousness and the reliability of dependency effects between Asian and Latin American countries. The cross-national analyses failed to demonstrate convincing support for the hypothesis that 1980 fertility levels or 1960 to 1980 fertility trends among less developed countreis in Latin America or Asia were affected by any of 13 to 15 (depending on the region) measures of economic dependency. While a few significant zero-order correlations in the expected order were found, these associations were the result of the correlation of the dependency measure with family planning program effort and/or social development. Lacking evidence of direct effects of dependency on fertility, an effort to uncover indirect effects (through early dependency effects on latter social or economic development levels) was attempted among Latin American countries. Early economic dependency was related to later dependency but not to later social or economic development. These results differ from those of Hout (1980, 1981) for Latin American and for all regions (nolan and White, 1983). Hout found significant effects using the percentage of imports from the leading trading partner in pooled regression analyses. Both his articles report significant effects of dependency interacting with development. The study differs from Hout¿s in that pooled regression of fertility (starting with 19-15-19 crude birthrates and then 1945-49, 1965, and 1975 CBRs) in both his studies differs from the studies of these authors. He included Argentina and Uruguay, while these authors omitted these 2 more developed countries. These 2 outlander countries and the inclusion of data from earlier years may help explain the difference between the results of these authors and those of Hout. Nolan and White (1983) find significant effects on 1977 fertility of dummy variables representing non-core (semiperiphery or periphery) countries in all regions. Using a comparative and multi-measurement strategy to test for economic dependency effects within 2 separate regions, there were 30 tests for dependency effects in Latin countries and 26 tests among Asian countries. No direct effects were found of dependency on fertility levels or change in even 1 of these 56 tests. It is concluded that economic dependency effects, if they exist, are small. In contrast, the substantive effects of social development and family planning program effort are large.
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